The Diamond Fan

Spring training has started and everyone is trying to figure out who among the rookie phenoms will make a big splash this year and go on to become stars. This year names live Evan Longoria, Jay Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury and Cameron Maybin are part of the conversation. Fifty years ago, the February 26, 1958 issue of The Sporting News published a list of “Top Prospects” as voted on by major league scouts (”Major Scouts Tab Siebern as Top Prospect.” ) The Siebern in question was Norm Siebern, a New York Yankees outfielder who had been primed for a big debut in 1956 only to have his season derailed by a knee injury. He was coming back after a strong season at AAA Denver in 1957, and the scouts voted him the number one prospect for that year. Others on the list: Carlton Willey, Braves pitcher; Ron Jackson, White Sox first baseman; Stan Williams, Dodgers pitcher; Mudcat Grant, Indians pitcher.

Forecasting baseball talent has always been an inexact science, so I thought it would be fun to take a look back and see how those top prospects from yesteryear panned out.

• Norm Siebern did indeed make the Yankees’ squad that year. He played in 134 games, batting exactly .300 with 14 HR and a .842 OPS. He played mostly left field, and won a gold Glove for his fielding prowess. He went on to have a decent, if unspectacular career, with his best season coming in 1962 with Kansas city when he hit .308, 25HR, 117 RBI. He is best known, however, as the key player traded to the Athletics in the deal that brought Roger Maris to the Yankees prior to the 1960 season.
• Carlton Willey. Also make the team out of spring training and was a decent contributor to the Braves’ pennant winner. Like Siebern he played in the World Series his rookie season. His rookie season was his best, though, and although he stuck around for eight seasons he was an unremarkable contributor to the Braves and Mets teams he played on through 1965, ending his career with a 38-58 won-loss record.
• Ron Jackson wasn’t a rookie that season, having played in 40 games as early as 1954 and having some major league action in each season 1954-57. He played in a career high 61 games in ‘58, but only played 10 games each in ‘59 and ‘60 before hanging it up, a prospect who didn’t pan out.
• Stan Williams started 21 games for the Dodgers that year and went on to have quite a respectable career, lasting for 14 major league seasons, about half of them as a starter. He was an All Star in 1960, and played on pennant winning team with the Dodgers and Yankees in 1959, 1963 and 1964.
• Mudcat Grant also pitched (f0r Cleveland) in ‘58 and like Williams went on to have a nice 14 year career in the big leagues. He was an All Star twice (1963, 1965) and was a key player on the 1965 Twins pennant winning team.

So of the five phenoms the scouts identified in 1958, all of them did contribute to their major league teams that season, and all but one went on to have respectable major league careers, two of them quite fine careers as pitchers. It would be interesting to fast forward to 2058 to see if this season’s crop fare as well.