The Diamond Fan

The Dodgers are in the midst of a nine game road trip against three of the worst teams in the National league, a stretch in which they should have been able to easily salt away the division and start gearing up for the playoffs. Instead they have gone 3-3 against the Nationals and the Pirates, and looking bad in the process. Today they threw away a three run lead in the 9th inning and now have to come back tomorrow to try to clinch the division.

This is easily the best, most talented team the Dodgers have fielded since at least the 1988 World Series champions, probably the best since the 1981 team. But since the All Star break they have not played like a championship team. The fielding is lackadaisical, the hitting inconsistent, and the starting pitching even more up-and-down. They will win the division, but the way this team is playing, unless Joe Torre is able to issue a wake-up call or they can somehow turn on the competitive juices come October it is hard to like their chances in what shapes up as a very competitive N.L. postseason tournament.

After getting off to a hot start, the Dodgers have been scuffling since the All Star break, having gone 18-18 since then after winning 56 of 88 before the break to build a seven game division lead. There are several reasons for the decline; hitting is weaker overall (.012 worse OPS), let be significant OPS declines by Manny Ramirez, James Loney, Casey Blake and Juan Pierre. The bullpen is showing signs of fatigue. Most importantly, the starting rotation, a strength early on, has been beset by injuries and inconsistency.

That’s why the pitching performances in the last two games against the Cubs has been so encouraging. Randy Wolf has really stepped up in his last two starts, both on the mound and with the bat, and has become (for now) the team’s most reliable starter. And Charlie Haeger has been a revelation in his first two starts with his knuckleball delivery. Now we just need a few things to fall in place:

• Kuroda to make a complete recovery from his scary injury.
• Billingsley’s hammy not acting up.
• Kershaw getting a both of a break (backing off his starts a day of two or skipping a turn) to keep him fresh and able to go deeper into games

If Haeger can keep baffling NL hitters with the knuckler and Padilla at least be effective enough to keep us in the games he starts and eat up some innings, I think the rotation will straighten itself out. The lead has shrunk to the point that we now have a pennant race, but the Dodgers should be able to retain control. And once the playoffs starts, A healthy Billingsley-Kershaw-Wolf-Kuroda rotation looks pretty good.

We will have to wait for the AL Central race to sort itself out before the playoff field is completely set, but now we at least know the parings for the National League.  A few random thoughts:

• Whoever wins the LCS and goes on to the World Series, it will be something of a novelty.  The most recent of the four franchises to make it to the World Series was the Philadelphia Phillies of 1993, who lost the series to the Toronto Blue Jays in six games.  A listing of the four, with year of last appearance in the World Series (and last WS win):
  • Philadelphia Phillies 1993 (1980)
  • Los Angeles Dodgers 1988 (1988)
  • Milwaukee Brewers 1982 (the Brewers have never won a series; Milwaukee last had a WS champion in 1957)
  • Chicago Cubs 1945 (1908)
• The Cubs and Phillies both made the playoff field last year (both lost in the first round), but during the nine years of the Aughts so far (2000-2009) there have been only five appearances by these franchises in the playoffs: the Cubs twice (2003 and 2007), the Dodgers twice (2004 and 2006), and the Phillies once (2007).  Only one (the 2003 Cubs) advanced beyond the first round.
• This is the fifth time (of 14) since the Wild Card was instituted that the NL Wild Card has come from the Central Division.  Not counting the strike-shortened 1995 season, only one time has a team won the NL Wild Card with fewer victories than the 2008 Brewers’ 90 (the 2006 Dodgers, who won 88).  Several other Wild Cards have gotten in with just 90 wins, most recently last year’s Rockies.

So while the Cubs (”cursed” and without a championship in a century) will rightfully be the sentimental favorites, whoever wins out to the World Series it will represent a breakthrough for a franchise that has had very little success in recent years.

Should be fun!

Just when I thought that the Yankees trading their way into serious contention was going to be the big story of this year’s trade deadline, along comes news of the blockbuster three-way trade sending Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers, Jason Bay to the Red Sox, and a quartet of prospects (featuring Andy LaRoche) to the every-rebuilding Pirates.  Taking a look at it from the perspective of each team:

Pirates:  They did a lot better for themselves in this deal than they did in virtually giving away Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to the Yankees.  Andy LaRoche has a legitimate shot at become an above average third baseman.  Brandon Moss also looks like he could stick as a big-leaguer, and the two pitchers coming their way (Craig Hansen from Boston and Bryan Morris from the Dodgers) at least have some potential.  Overall, not a bad deal for the Pirates long-term.

Red Sox:  They have to eat the remaining $7 million on Manny’s contract for this season, but they get rid of what has become a huge headache for them, and in return get a good outfielder whose numbers so fat this season is comparable to Manny’s.  For a team that basically “had to do this” I think they made out fine.  I’m not sure it makes them a better team for this year’s pennant race, and with the Rays not going away and the Yankees having definitely upgraded at the deadline they run a serious risk of not making the playoffs, but in the long run Bay is an asset and they will have some extra money to play with this off-season.

Dodgers: Of all the teams in this deal, the Dodgers are the ones with the highest risk-reward factors.  They trade away one of their legitimate blue chip prospects, albeit one in whom they apparently lacked confidence since they didn’t give him a good chance to prove himself as a major league 3rd baseman before trading for Casey Blake.  They seriously needed a big bat in the middle of their lineup, which Manny provides, but they already had a glut of outfielders and the potential is there for Manny’s presence to be a big distraction in a clubhouse that apparently had some veteran versus young guys issues last season.  Joe Torre has his work cut out for him.  Also, reports are that the Dodgers had to waive the club’s option to pick up the next two year’s of Ramirez’ contract, so this is basically a half-season rental.  Still, if Ramirez produces at anywhere near the level he is capable, this pushes the Dodgers to the front of the NL West contenders.  They are definitely in position to give the Diamondbacks and resurgent Rockies a run for their money, and with their pitching once they get into the playoffs anything is possible.  So, yes, it is a gamble, but is probably a gamble worth taking.  “Flags fly forever,” as they say, and the NL pennant is there for the taking in 2008.

This year once again, the Dodgers (ostensibly a large-market team) stumble into the All Star breat with a losing record.  Only by dint of playing in the NL West, where the other franchises are proving equally inept, do they even have a whiff of a chance of making the playoffs.  Why is it that one of the game’s richest and most storied franchises, playing in one of the largest markets and with resources that would be the envy of any team outside of New York and Boston, has failed to make the World Series in twenty years and have won only one playoff game in that span. Why?

The problem, in a nutshell, is that the front office is totally incompetent.  This year one need look no farther than the outfiled, where Andruw Jones is getting paid just shy of $15 million and Juan Pierre is making $9 million.  Two players whose productivity is equivalent to a late-inning defensive replacement and a fourth outfielder/pince runner, respectively.  $24 million.  There goes your laarge market competitive advantage right there, squandered.  Throw in another $15 million on a pitcher who hasn’t pitched all season and may never pitch again (Jason Schmidt) and $9 million on a formerly great shortstop who had his best season eight years ago (Garciaparra) and you’ve pretty much matched the entire payroll of the Tampa Bay Rays, who would be 9 1/2 games ahead of the Dodgers in the standings right now.  All for essentially zero contribution.  Pretty much sums it up, right there.  Even a highly productive farm system (which the Dodgers DO have, thank God) can’t dig you out of that big a hole.

You could just chalk it up to a bit of bad luck, but the Dodgers have been making these kinds of stupid decisions for years.  Remember Darren Dreifort, and how everyone was looking forward to how the Dodgers would be able to spend that money once it was freed up?  well, now we know: throw it away again on another set of washed-up (or never were) veterans.  Heck you can take it all the way beack to Dave Goltz, who in 1980 the Dodgers made one of the highest paid free agents in history up until that time , only to see him go 9-19 over the next three years pitching for some decent ballclubs.

Add in the fact that they can’t even recognize who ther five best starting pitchers are, and it’s a miracle that Joe Torre and the kids have managed to win as much as they have.

All one can do is hope they don’t totally lose their mind and trade away part of the future (Kemp, Eithier, LaRoche, etc) for yet another retread who will help make it look like “we’re trying to win this year” when all they are trying to do is keep the turnstiles humming until the wheels come off in September.

Play-the-kids! It’s the only way you’re going to make this playoffs this year, next year, or any other year, unless and until you get somebody in the front office that can actually evaluate major league talent.