The Diamond Fan

Who would have thought?  This year’s World Series matches up a franchise that has never been there before with one that has been the loosingest team in MLB history and only won one W.S. title in its entire existence, which spans 125 years.  The Phillies were not that much of a long shot at the beginning of the season, but anybody who says they saw this coming from the young Rays back at the beginning of the season is lying.  Heck, I thought I was going out on a limb when I predicted they would have a winning season.

Be that as it may, what we have here is a matchup of two deserving teams and what promises to be a competitive and interesting series.  My predictive powers when it comes to baseball are certainly questionable, but here’s my take on the important factors in how this will play out.

Tampa Bay Rays

Why they can win: A good lineup from top to bottom, with no real easy outs.  No superstars, but Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford make a good heart of the order.  Three solid starters, and a bullpen that usually gets the job done is what you need in a postseason pitching staff. The addition of David Price is just enough to put them over the top.  He may be their best option to close games.

Why they might not win:  The bullpen is not overpowering and they cannot afford any blown seven-run leads like they had in Boston.  Defensively they are solid, but showed themselves to be prone to lapses in the ALCS.

Philadephia Phillies

Why they can win:  The top of the batting order is top notch.  Rollins and Howard are both recent MVPs who did not play up to their talent in the NLCS.  Chase Utley is perhaps the best player on the field for either team.  They have the better bullpen, and the best starting pitcher in Cole Hamels.  That is usually a winning combination in a short series.

Why they might not win: The bottom of the batting order is a black hole of out-making that offers an escape hatch to the Rays’ young starters if they get in trouble.  If you compare the teams position by position the Rays are simply a better team all around, and the Phillies bench is no great shakes.

Prediction:  I think the Phillies will put up a good fight but the Rays are the likely winners.  I’ll say Rays in seven.

With the White Sox winning a tense victory over the Twins the field is finally set for the American League playoffs.  In contrast to the National League field, this group is comprised mostly of teams that have had great success recently (with the notable exception of the Rays, of course).

• The Red Sox, White Sox and Angels have all won World Series titles this decade (the Red Sox twice). Between them they have four World Series appearances (all victories), as opposed to none for the four NL playoff teams.
• Between them the three teams have 10 playoff appearances this decade (versus five for the NL contenders).
• Of course, prior to this decade these franchises all suffered from a notable lack of success. The Red Sox “curse” is well known, and the White Sox had not won a championship since before the notorious Black Sox scandal of 1919.  The Angels’ pennant in 2002 was the first ever for the team.

So, while based on recent events the Rays have to be your team if you like to cheer for the underdog, longtime fans of the other three teams may rightfully feel they still have some making up to do for long years of championship drought.

I just hope the Tampa Bay fans show up to see their excellent young team compete in what should be an exciting playoff. The Angels-Red Sox matchup is one of the best first round pairings ever.

I blogged earlier about how impressed I am with the young talent that the Rays have put together in Tampa Bay, and that I thought they had a real shot at the first winning season in franchise history.

I take it back.

The Rays announced today that they are sending top prospect Evan Longoria back to the minor leagues, even though he is clearly the best option they have at third base.  Now Tampa Bay fans get to see Willie Aybar hold down third base at somewhat-less-than-replacement-level, which, come to think of it, is about what you have come to expect from the Rays over the years. So much for “putting the best team on the field” and actually trying to win games. Despite management protestations to the contrary, this was not a baseball decision, it was a “let’s save some money by making this kid wait another year so we can postpone paying him market rate for his services” decision.

Oh, well. They’ll probably still beat out the Orioles and avoid last place.

I need to keep reminding myself that Major League Baseball is not a sport, it is a business masquerading as a sport.  I guess I’m afraid that if I let that fact sink in I won’t really give a damn about it any more.

Before I look into the crystal ball and predict the divisional winners for 2008, I thought I’d throw out my picks for the teams most likely to exceed expectations this season.

National League: Atlanta Braves. With all the talk about Mets and Phillies, everyone seems to have forgotten about the Braves. but they look like a solid team to me and are likely to contend throughout the season. I’m not saying they will win it, but I expect them to be in the hunt with the mets and Phillies into September. the outfield is a little weak, but Francoeur is a solid player, and Diaz in left is at least average. Kotsay is an offensive hole in center, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Josh Anderson take over at some point during the season. The infield is solid, as is McCann behind the plate. The rotation has steady veterans at the top with Smoltz, Hudson, and Glavine. Hampton has looked good this spring, and I really like young Jair Jurrjens in the fifth spot. Chuck James will give some depth when he returns from injury.
Keys to success: Keeping Chipper Jones healthy,Raphael Soriano stepping up in the closer role, and finding an answer in center field.

American League: Tampa Bay Rays. I’ve blogged about the Rays recently, so I won’t go into details here, other than to say I really like the look of this team. One indication of the quality players here: in my fantasy draft held this weekend just about every position player and most of the major pitchers were drafted. That has never come close to happening with a Tampa Bay team before.
Keys to success: Continued development of their young stars, Percival coming through in the closer role, avoid having a rash of injuries.

One of the teams I think will be interesting to watch this year are the Tampa Bay Rays. For the first time in team history they have a realistic shot at a winning season, if things break right for them. Other people have noticed, too. As Mike Bauman says on mlb.com:

There are exciting young players here. There are young pitchers with
real talent who are good right now and might well be much better than
that later on. There have been some additions of veterans who have
brought a positive presence. And after recent seasons in which the Rays
were forced to be essentially a player development operation at the
Major League level, they are poised for nothing less than a
corner-turning campaign.

With the outfield consisting of two bona fide stars (Carl Crawford and BJ Upton) plus one “could be a star if he stays healthy” (Rocco Baldelli), Carlos Pena coming off a breakout season at first base, highly-touted rookie Evan Longoria at third, and respectable players manning the “up the middle” defense (Navarro behind the plate, Iwamura and Bartlett around the keystone, and the aforementioned Upton in center field), the lineup looks to be quite competitive. Add a rotation anchored by two potential aces (Scott Kazmir and James Shields) and you have a team that is ready to compete this season. Not championship-caliber yet, perhaps, but a winning record is not just a pipe dream.
Young teams generally are fun to watch and I think this year’s Rays could be a lot of fun.