The Diamond Fan

The Dodgers are in the midst of a nine game road trip against three of the worst teams in the National league, a stretch in which they should have been able to easily salt away the division and start gearing up for the playoffs. Instead they have gone 3-3 against the Nationals and the Pirates, and looking bad in the process. Today they threw away a three run lead in the 9th inning and now have to come back tomorrow to try to clinch the division.

This is easily the best, most talented team the Dodgers have fielded since at least the 1988 World Series champions, probably the best since the 1981 team. But since the All Star break they have not played like a championship team. The fielding is lackadaisical, the hitting inconsistent, and the starting pitching even more up-and-down. They will win the division, but the way this team is playing, unless Joe Torre is able to issue a wake-up call or they can somehow turn on the competitive juices come October it is hard to like their chances in what shapes up as a very competitive N.L. postseason tournament.

After getting off to a hot start, the Dodgers have been scuffling since the All Star break, having gone 18-18 since then after winning 56 of 88 before the break to build a seven game division lead. There are several reasons for the decline; hitting is weaker overall (.012 worse OPS), let be significant OPS declines by Manny Ramirez, James Loney, Casey Blake and Juan Pierre. The bullpen is showing signs of fatigue. Most importantly, the starting rotation, a strength early on, has been beset by injuries and inconsistency.

That’s why the pitching performances in the last two games against the Cubs has been so encouraging. Randy Wolf has really stepped up in his last two starts, both on the mound and with the bat, and has become (for now) the team’s most reliable starter. And Charlie Haeger has been a revelation in his first two starts with his knuckleball delivery. Now we just need a few things to fall in place:

• Kuroda to make a complete recovery from his scary injury.
• Billingsley’s hammy not acting up.
• Kershaw getting a both of a break (backing off his starts a day of two or skipping a turn) to keep him fresh and able to go deeper into games

If Haeger can keep baffling NL hitters with the knuckler and Padilla at least be effective enough to keep us in the games he starts and eat up some innings, I think the rotation will straighten itself out. The lead has shrunk to the point that we now have a pennant race, but the Dodgers should be able to retain control. And once the playoffs starts, A healthy Billingsley-Kershaw-Wolf-Kuroda rotation looks pretty good.

Today’s game between Cleveland and New York ended with the Yankees winning 7-4. The biggest thing about the game, though, wasn’t the final score, it was that the game exposed baseball’s new, limited instant replay as a total farce.
With the score 3-2 Indians and one on in the bottom of the 7th, Jorge Posada hit a ball on which Cleveland outfielder Trevor Crowe was prepared to make a leaping catch. Only he didn’t make the catch because a fan (two fans, actually) reached over the fence and deflected the ball before it got to Crowe’s glove.
The ball hit the top of the fence and bounced back into the field of play, but the umpire signalled home run. Ball call, but hey, this is the kind of play for which instant replay was specifically instituted, right? Wrong! Somehow, even after watching the replay, the umpires decided that, no, the fan who had his arm fully extended outward toward the field while standing right at the fence, was NOT interfering with the play. What ?!#?
The only thing I can think is that this was a CYA thing for the umps. Our guy made the call and it would look bad to overrule him, so let’s just pretend that there is not enough “clear and convincing evidence” to overturn. What a joke! If you’re not going to overturn that play, then the whole instant reply idea is a complete waste of time and might as well be ditched.

Well, I’m a few days late, as the season has been underway since Monday, but at long last here are my predictions for the 2009 MLB season.  Check back in October to see how I did.

American League

East: New York Yankees
The Bronx Bombers have brought in the right pieces to buy another AL East title.

Central: Minnesota Twins
This is the hardest division to figure.  Any of the five teams could conceivably win; any of them could also finish last.  I’ going with the Twins just because Ron Gardehire always seems to get the best out of his crew.

West: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Angels’ pitching is in a bit of disarray to start the season with Lackey and Ervin Santana on the DL, but despite that and the loss of Mark Texieria, the Halos still have enough to win in a relatively weak division.

Wild Card: Boston Red Sox
It won’t be easy holding off the Rays, but Bostons’ pitching depth and balanced lineup will carry the day.

Pennant Winner: Boston Red Sox
While I think the Yankees will have the better record over the course of the long season, I like to Red Sox to prevail in the playoffs with their strong pitching and veteran lineup.

National League

East: New York Mets
Next to the AL Central, this is th hardest division to handicap.  The defening champion Phillies look to be strong again, the Mets have taken steps to address their weaknesses, and Atlanta appears to have improved enough to mount a challenge.  I think the Mets will be hungry for redemption and will ride its youhg stars David Wright and Jose Reyes to a title.

Central: Chicago Cubs
Lou Pinella’s squad has unfinished business after last year’s playoff debacle, and they are clearly the most talented team in the field.

West: Los Angeles Dodgers
If the pitching holds up, they could run away with it.  If the pitching is less than stellar, expect a dogfight with the Dbacks.

Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies

They’ll be better than you think: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have a pretty good core of young talent, and if their young Dominican pitchers take another step forward they have the potential to surprise a lot of people.

Pennant Winner: Chicago Cubs

World Series: Cubs over Red Sox in seven
The last of the hexes finally falls.

Who would have thought?  This year’s World Series matches up a franchise that has never been there before with one that has been the loosingest team in MLB history and only won one W.S. title in its entire existence, which spans 125 years.  The Phillies were not that much of a long shot at the beginning of the season, but anybody who says they saw this coming from the young Rays back at the beginning of the season is lying.  Heck, I thought I was going out on a limb when I predicted they would have a winning season.

Be that as it may, what we have here is a matchup of two deserving teams and what promises to be a competitive and interesting series.  My predictive powers when it comes to baseball are certainly questionable, but here’s my take on the important factors in how this will play out.

Tampa Bay Rays

Why they can win: A good lineup from top to bottom, with no real easy outs.  No superstars, but Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford make a good heart of the order.  Three solid starters, and a bullpen that usually gets the job done is what you need in a postseason pitching staff. The addition of David Price is just enough to put them over the top.  He may be their best option to close games.

Why they might not win:  The bullpen is not overpowering and they cannot afford any blown seven-run leads like they had in Boston.  Defensively they are solid, but showed themselves to be prone to lapses in the ALCS.

Philadephia Phillies

Why they can win:  The top of the batting order is top notch.  Rollins and Howard are both recent MVPs who did not play up to their talent in the NLCS.  Chase Utley is perhaps the best player on the field for either team.  They have the better bullpen, and the best starting pitcher in Cole Hamels.  That is usually a winning combination in a short series.

Why they might not win: The bottom of the batting order is a black hole of out-making that offers an escape hatch to the Rays’ young starters if they get in trouble.  If you compare the teams position by position the Rays are simply a better team all around, and the Phillies bench is no great shakes.

Prediction:  I think the Phillies will put up a good fight but the Rays are the likely winners.  I’ll say Rays in seven.