The Diamond Fan

As we are heading into the last month of the season, this seems like a good time to review the various pennant races and races for Wild Card spots to see who still has a change for the postseason and what their prospects really are.

NL West

Arizona leads Los Angeles by 3 games.

This is still a race, but despite the front office having done what it can to find the right pieces for a playoff run (and perhaps damaging the club’s long-term prospects in the process … but I digress) the Dodgers’ inability to win on the road, and more specifically their inability to get timely hits, has put them in a difficult situation. They need to win at Washington and take two our of three at Arizona this week, or this race could turn into a “no race” very quickly.

NL Central

Chicago leads Milwaukee by 5; St. Louis by 8 1/2

Still a race for sure, especially since the Cubs still have 6 games each with the Brewers and the Cardinals. Realistically the Cardinals are playing for the Wild Card more than the division title, but this could still get interesting down the stretch.

NL East

New York leads Philadelphia by 1/2; Florida by 5 1/2

Very much up in the air. The Phillies looked good in sweeping the Dodgers over the weekend.   It’s amazing to see the Marlins hanging in, but I expect it will come down to Philly and New York just like last season, and it should go down to the wire.

NL Wild Card

Milwaukee leads St. Louis by 3 1/2; Philadelphia by 4

I think this comes down to the Brewers and the Cardinals. If either the Phillies or Mets get hot they will win the division; its seems unlikely they will both get hot in September.

AL West

Angels lead by 16

No race. The Angels are in.

AL Central

Chicago leads Minnesota by 1

Perhaps the hottest race of all, with the lead see-sawing back and forth, seemingly day by day.  Unfortunately the teams play each other only three times in September.

AL East

Tampa Bay leads Boston by 4 1/2; New York by 9 1/2

The Rays have six games each remaining with the Red Sox and Yankees so they control their own destiny. If they win it, nobody can say they didn’t earn it.

AL Wild Card

Boston leads Minnesota by 1 1/2; New York by 5

Wouldn’t it be something if both the Yankees and the Red Sox missed the playoffs this year?  It could happen, as Tampa Bay and Minnesota are legitimately good teams who are entirely capable of holding off theri better financed rivals for thee AL East and Wild Card spots repsctively.   I still think the Red Sox will get in there one way or the other, but it is looking like a real long shot for the Yankees.

I love this speech, given on the floor of the House of Representatives by Congressman Richard Durbin.  He has to be a great American to have given such an oration.  “Any tree in America would gladly give its life for the glory of a day at home plate.”  Gotta love it!  I reproduce it here for my readers’ enjoyment.

From the Congressional Record, July 26, 1989 page H4274

Desecration of a Great American Symbol: the Wooden Baseball Bat

(Mr. Durbin asked and was given permission to address the House for 1 minute and to revise and extend his remarks.)

MR. DURBIN. Mr. Speaker, I rise to condemn the desecration of a great American symbol. No, I am not referring to flag burning; I am referring to the baseball bat.
Several experts tell us that the wooden baseball bat is doomed to extinction, that major league baseball players will soon be standing at home plate with aluminum bats in their hands.  Baseball fans have been forced to endure countless indignities by those who just cannot leave well enough alone.
Designated hitters, plastic grass, uniforms that look like pajamas, chicken clowns dancing on the baselines, and of course the most heinous sacrilege, lights in Wrigley Field.
Are we willing to hear the crack of a bat replaced by the dinky ping? Are we ready to see the Louisville Slugger replaced by the aluminum ping dinger? Is nothing sacred?
Please, do not tell me that wooden bats are too expensive when players who cannot hit their weight are being paid more money than the president of the United States.
Please, do not try to sell me on the notion that these metal clubs will make better hitters.
What is next? Teflon baseballs? Radar-enhanced gloves? I ask you.
I do not want to hear about saving trees.  Any tree in America would gladly give its life for the glory of a day at home plate.
I do not know if it will take a constitutional amendment to keep the baseball traditions alive, but if we forsake the great Americana of broken-bat singles and pine tar, we will have certainly lost our way as a nation.

The Sporting News issue of fifty years ago this week (August 8, 1958) featured Yankees pitcher Bob Turley. The headline:

Bullet Bob Firing for Top Hill Targets: Sets Fast Pace in Victories, Route Jobs, and Strikeouts

Specific articles in the feature were “Could Sweep All Pitching Honors in’58″ and “Yanks’ Hurler Throwback to Iron Man Era.”  The article credits Turley as a key reason the Yankees were running away with the AL pennant race, and speculates on his potential for achieving certain milestones such as 20 complete games and possibly sweeping the AL pitching honors that season.  The article states:

Bob amounts to a throw-back to the rubber arms of 30 and 40 years ago, when pitchers just naturally went nine innings. Today the route-goer is rare. Notching 20 complete games, for example, which is definitely within Turley’s reach, is an extraordinary feat for a starter who has firemen breathing on his neck.

At the time the article was written Turley was 15-4 with an ERA of 2.78, 118 strikeouts and 14 complete games.

How did Turley end up that season? He finished 21-7 with 168 srikeouts and an ERA of 2.97.  He just missed the 20 complete games mark, finish with 19, which still tied for the best in the AL along with Frank Lary and Billy Pierce.  His 21 wins also led the league.  He did, in fact, win the Major League Cy Young Award, as well as The Sporting News Major League Player of the Year Award, TSN’s American League Pitcher of the Year Award, and the World Series MVP.

This, his age 27 season, turned out to be the high point of his career.  He would win only 29 more games from 1959-1963, all but the last three (in 1963) with the Yankees, finishing with 101 career victories.  He would never again be among the league leaders in wins or complete games, although he was 7th in the AL in ERA during 1960.

The rarity of complete games that the Sporting News bemoaned fifty years ago has, of course, become even more rare in recent years.  It was not at all uncommon for league leaders in complete games to exceed Turley’s 19 (sometimes by quite a bit) during the 60s and 70s.  But the last pitcher to reach as many as 20 complete games in a season was Fernando Valenzuela in 1986.  No pticher since the turn of the 21st Century has pitched as many as 10 in a season.

Just when I thought that the Yankees trading their way into serious contention was going to be the big story of this year’s trade deadline, along comes news of the blockbuster three-way trade sending Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers, Jason Bay to the Red Sox, and a quartet of prospects (featuring Andy LaRoche) to the every-rebuilding Pirates.  Taking a look at it from the perspective of each team:

Pirates:  They did a lot better for themselves in this deal than they did in virtually giving away Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to the Yankees.  Andy LaRoche has a legitimate shot at become an above average third baseman.  Brandon Moss also looks like he could stick as a big-leaguer, and the two pitchers coming their way (Craig Hansen from Boston and Bryan Morris from the Dodgers) at least have some potential.  Overall, not a bad deal for the Pirates long-term.

Red Sox:  They have to eat the remiaing $7 million on Manyy’s contract for this season, but they get rid of what has become a huge headache for them, and in return get a good outfielder whose numbers so fat this season is comparable to Manny’s.  For a team that bascially “had to do this”, I think they made out fine.  I’m not sure it makes them a better team for this year’s pennant race, and with the Rays not going away and the yankkes having definitley upgraded at the deadline they run a serious risk of not making the playoffs, but in the long run Bay is an asset and they will have some extra money to play with this off-season.

Dodgers: Of all the teams in this deal, the Dodgers are the ones with the highest risk-reward factors.  They trade away one of their legitimate blue chip prospects, albeit one in whom they apparently lacked confidence since they didn’t give him a good chance to prove himself as a major league 3rd baseman before trading for Casey Blake.  Thye seriously needed a big bat in the middle of their lineup, which Manny provides, but they already had a glut of outfielders and the potential is there for Manny’s presence to be a big distraction in a clubhouse that apparently had some veteran versus young guys issues last season.  Joe Torre has his work cut out for him.  Also, reports are that the Dodgers had to waive the club’s option to pick up the next two year’s of Ramirez’ contract, so this is basically a half-season rental.  Still, if Ramirez produces at anywhere near the level he is capable, this pushes the Dodgers to the front of the NL West contenders.  They are definitely in position to give the Diamondbacks and resurgent Rockies a run for their money, and with their pitching once they get into the playoffs anything is possible.  So, yes, it is a gamble, but is probably a gamble worth taking.  “Flags fly forever,” as they say, and the NL pennant is there for the taking in 2008.

This year once again, the Dodgers (ostensibly a large-market team) stumble into the All Star breat with a losing record.  Only by dint of playing in the NL West, where the other franchises are proving equally inept, do they even have a whiff of a chance of making the playoffs.  Why is it that one of the game’s richest and most storied franchises, playing in one of the largest markets and with resources that would be the envy of any team outside of New York and Boston, has failed to make the World Series in twenty years and have won only one playoff game in that span. Why?

The problem, in a nutshell, is that the front office is totally incompetent.  This year one need look no farther than the outfiled, where Andruw Jones is getting paid just shy of $15 million and Juan Pierre is making $9 million.  Two players whose productivity is equivalent to a late-inning defensive replacement and a fourth outfielder/pince runner, respectively.  $24 million.  There goes your laarge market competitive advantage right there, squandered.  Throw in another $15 million on a pitcher who hasn’t pitched all season and may never pitch again (Jason Schmidt) and $9 million on a formerly great shortstop who had his best season eight years ago (Garciaparra) and you’ve pretty much matched the entire payroll of the Tampa Bay Rays, who would be 9 1/2 games ahead of the Dodgers in the standings right now.  All for essentially zero contribution.  Pretty much sums it up, right there.  Even a highly productive farm system (which the Dodgers DO have, thank God) can’t dig you out of that big a hole.

You could just chalk it up to a bit of bad luck, but the Dodgers have been making these kinds of stupid decisions for years.  Remember Darren Dreifort, and how everyone was looking forward to how the Dodgers would be able to spend that money once it was freed up?  well, now we know: throw it away again on another set of washed-up (or never were) veterans.  Heck you can take it all the way beack to Dave Goltz, who in 1980 the Dodgers made one of the highest paid free agents in history up until that time , only to see him go 9-19 over the next three years pitching for some decent ballclubs.

Add in the fact that they can’t even recognize who ther five best starting pitchers are, and it’s a miracle that Joe Torre and the kids have managed to win as much as they have.

All one can do is hope they don’t totally lose their mind and trade away part of the future (Kemp, Eithier, LaRoche, etc) for yet another retread who will help make it look like “we’re trying to win this year” when all they are trying to do is keep the turnstiles humming until the wheels come off in September.

Play-the-kids! It’s the only way you’re going to make this playoffs this year, next year, or any other year, unless and until you get somebody in the front office that can actually evaluate major league talent.